Market Comments - Waiting for Direction

RBI increased CRR by 0.5% as I had expected though very few expected RBI to do this. Markets were surprised at the move but Profit booking had to come as we rallied smartly already. I have been mentioning that 20K would be difficult to cross as Valuations look stretched and so we will have to keep moving in a range for some time.

Stock specific activity will become order of the day as some of the stocks in Reliance group are quoting at 2012 valuations. There has been some frenzied run in the Reliance group stocks and even any amount of negative news can take the markets down. FED decision is expected today and so this will be one of the key factors before markets take direction. We are at a stage where some correction is required before we decisively cross 20K.

Reliance Energy valuations are being increased due to the huge valuation of its AP project and 3000 is the target that is being talked in this. Those who have bought at lower levels can stay put and those who would like to enter should wait for markets direction before taking a plunge in this. NTPC will move on REL price movement.

IFCI will keep moving in the range of 80 to 95 for some more days. GMR Infra had some movement yesterday but it should cross 180 decisively before it can cross 200 and then to 250.

RPL is moving based on the international oil prices but the valuations seem to be stretched a bit but whatever seems higher moves further up in this stock market.

Teledata is still being accumulated and very soon I believe there will be upper circuits in this stock. The key event for this will be November 5th when the dividends will be announced and if the combined dividend is 3 Rs also that will augur well for the stock and I believe management knows the expectations from the market about the dividend. This is one stock which looks a safe bet in this market.

Reliance Capital, RPL, Rel Industries all are approaching my revised targets once again and whenver I revise the targets for one year, they are getting done in one month :)

Markets should open weak today and there should be some volatility in the market before the key event unfolds today.

Market Comments - Wait for Key Events

Wait for Key events to unfold before deciding on the next course of action. You can book profits partially and then wait for the markets to take next direction.

Due to my busy schedule today I am signing off now and will update you later in the evening.

Monday Morning Market Musing - Stock Specific Activity

US markets closed in green on Friday and so our markets should open up smartly. We will then see some consolidation and I still feel that Bulls will have to sweat it out to reach destination 20K. I have some feeling that there may be a CRR rate hike to spoil the Bulls party tomorrow but this is only my assumption and if this rate hike does not happen we may see 20K soon.

The reason I feel RBI may increase CRR is to suck out the excess liquidity in the system. However there are many analysts who feel that RBI my go for a rate cut but I feel this is a bit difficult. If the rate hike happens markets may correct sharply as we are at higher levels. Any way let the key event unfold tomorrow. Focus on specific stocks and stay invested forgetting about the sensex.

There have been many questions on teledata informatics. Teledata Informatics Face value is 10 Rs but after the demerger all the three companies face value will be 2 Rs and for present 100 shares of Teledata of face value 10 Rs one will get 100 shares of Teledata informatics of face value 2 Rs and the other two companies Teledata Marine and Teldata Technology Solutions of 50 Shares each. This is the demerger process and the original equity of Teledata has been converted in the above format.

The EPS values that I have mentioned in the teledata message is post demerger process and not the current EPS. There are many contradictory views on teledata with many people suggesting the poor management of the company as one view not to buy but there are thousands of companies which are not even in profits but quoting at heavy price.

Teledata is quoting at low PE and also demerger will always results in giving better valuations. There is minimal risk in buying Teledata at current levels and chances of making good returns are much higher.

Teledata board is meeting on 5th November to consider interim dividend. I think share holders of teledata must be pleased with this announcement and if the dividend declared is 2 Rs, 1 Rs and 0.50 paisa for the three demerged entities, the share holders should be happy with this as this is an interim dividend and so another dividend will come up with year end results.

Buy Teledata and sit tightly without heedin to any rumours. Forget this as an investment and hold on for long time. You will then see manifold returns in this. If possible try to put your profits in this and forget this for atleat 1 year or till you get good returns whichever is possible. I am assuming 90 Rs as the least price by and 200 Rs on the higher side by Jan 2008. All the best to you !!!!!!!. However if the markets go down or reasons beyond my analysis, stock may see downside from current levels but you need to hold on to it for atleast for one year. One should be prepared for the downside always and be ready to hold it for long time. All the best to you !!!

SBI crossed 2000 Rs and is moving towards my target of 2500. IDBI should cross 175 Rs by this month end unless RBI spoils the banking party.

IFCI will be moving between 70 to 100 and close to 100 book profits and enter at lower levels again. However always keep some stocks of IFCI as you never know when this will zoom on news of bidding.

Rel Comm has not moved up as expected but it will soon catch up. Infosys may move up on restructuring of its business units.

NTPC will catch up momentum in coming days as REL power IPO will start in November.

Teledata Informatics - A great Opportunity to Buy

Teledata Informatics is a mysterious stock which is grossly undervalued and gives a chance for all investors to get great returns from current levels.

Teledata is going to be demerged into three entities .
1. Teledata Informatics
2.Teledata Marine Solutions Ltd
3. Teledata Technology Solutions Ltd

For 100 shares of Teledata Informatics, each share holder wil get 100 shares of Teledata Informatics ( Face value 2 Rs) , 50 shares of Teledata Marine Solutions (Face value 2 Rs) and 50 Shares of Teledata Technology Solutions (Face value 2 Rs).

Teledata has got approval for demerger and even the record date for demerger is fixed. 16th November is the Ex-date for this. All those who buy shares of Teledata upto 15th November will be eligible to get the shares of Teledata informatics Ltd carrying a face value of Rs.2 against its original face value and that of Teledata Marine Solutions Ltd and Teledata Technology Solutions Ltd.

Teledata is currently hovering around 65 Rs and operators are trying to suppress the price and grab more shares.

After Demerger Teledata Info EPS will be 21 and even PE of 3 will give Value of 63 for Teledata

and Teledata Marine Solutions EPS will be 16 and PE of 3 will give 48 Rs value in this and TTS EPS will be around 8 and PE Of 3 will give value of 24 Rs.

I am just assuming safe PE of 3 which is the minimum kind of thing and so combined value for 100 shares of Teledata will be 6300 + 2400 + 1200 = 9900 Rs.

There will be minimum returns of 50% on investment of 6500 Rs. This returns will be in 3 Months approx after the listing of the demerged entities.

Hold this stock for 2 years and you could see atleast 10 times returns.

Market Comments - Bulls in Control

SEBI has finally decided on the P-Notes issue. There are not major changes from the original draft which was announced two weeks ago. Markets should set this P-Note issue aside and now only the interest rates are of interest to market. It will be interesting to see the opening moves today as there could be lot of volatility on the P-Note front.

There is lot of specualtion in US that FED will cut interest rate and even RBI could cut CRR. However even if these events do not happen, markets should now move to destination 20K. Though the valuations appear stretched, bulls are not allowing bears to strike back and henc they are controlling the market.

IFCI made smart move yesterday and those who bought it in Futures might have made good money. NTPC and PTC should perform well due to REL IPO and my targets for November are 325 in NTPC and PTC should reach 150. These will depend on market conditions and other cues which keep changing but I am sticking my neck out and giving the targets. IDBI should touch 175 by November End.

IFCI will keep moving between 75 to 100 and so keep playing in this counter till it crosses 100 decisively. This will happen after some news on bidding is known.

GMR Infra is stagnant for quiet some days but please be patient in this for next few months and you will be rewarded for your patience. It is a great stock worth holding for atleast next 3 to 4 years. It will give you amazing returns.

Market valuations are bit stretched and we may see some meltdown in future but when will this happen...DO NOT worry about this....I will guide you... "Main Hoon Na....."

Market Comments - Key Events to decide market direction

Markets have become volatile and they will be expected to remain so till 31st October. Today SEBI is going to decide on the P-Notes issue and the outcome is keenly awaited.

FED event lined up next week and RBI meet this month end are key events to watch for. Markets believe there will be another FED rate cut and even RBI is expected to cut CRR by 0.5% which will augur well for the markets and we can see 20K in quick time.

Stay focussed on specific stocks and add more in turbulent times.

Those who are trading in F & O can go for NTPC, IDBI, IFCI, SBI, RPL with stop losses as per their comfort levels.

Market Comments - Bulls in full Swing

Markets created another history recording highest rise in a single day. As I said yesterday that another 1000 points correction was expected but markets do not behave in the way we want. Market has its own style of moving. This was the precise reason I asked you to buy specific stocks rather than focussing on Sensex.

Teledata has got approval for demerger and even the record date for demerger is fixed. I believe teledata will race close to 100 before the demerger. 16th November is the Ex-date for this. All those who buy shares of Teledata upto 15th November will be eligible to get the shares of Teledata informatics Ltd carrying a face value of Rs.2 against its original face value and that of Teledata Marine Solutions Ltd and Teledata Technology Solutions Ltd.

IDBI has started its upmove again and is moving towards first target of 150. NTPC is moving up because of REL power IPO and we should see 25% gains in NTPC by the time REL power IPO is over.

IFCI will also see smart up move. Reliance Capital has moved in fast lane and so also RIL. RCOM should start moving up now. My target is 1000 Rs in next 15 days.

Markets may move up by another 400 to 500 points today. However the volatility will be such that we can see even a fall of 1000 points now on any given day. The coming days are going to be as such.

Maytas Infra is going to list tomorrow. I expect a listing price of around 500 in this scrip.

Market Comments - Stock Specific Activity

Markets are expected to remain volatile as it is settlement time and also SEBI clarifications on P-Notes was not satisfactory. However this is the right time to pick up some stocks which have come to comfortable levels and then plan accordingly for further shopping as and when market corrects. I believe we may see another 1000 points correction but market does not behave as we like. There are certain key events lined up till this month end and one best option is to buy in only the stocks which you feel have come to comfortable levels.

IFCI is at comfortable level to buy. GMR Infra is good to buy at 140 or below level. SBI is good to buy at around 1650 to 1700 levels. TCS is good buy at current level of around 1000. RCOM is good at current levels. Reliance is probably good if it comes to 2200 levels. The list goes on. Check my recommendations and buy at comfortable levels based on the given targets.

US markets closed in positive yesterday but that could be mainly due to short covering after huge fall on Friday. I believe we may see some fall in US markets today and so that will have an effect on our markets again tomorrow. Be cautious in your shopping till 31st October. This week should give good opportunity to buy specific stocks.

Stock picks link :
http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/10/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs :
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com/
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com/
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com/

Monday Morning Market Musing - Bears in Control

There is an interesting story which I wanted to share with you on this Monday Morning.

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared who announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10.00 . The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys in the forest, went out and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10.00. As supply started to diminish and villagers started to stop their efforts, he announced that now he would buy them at $20.00.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon, the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate was increased to $25.00 and the supply of monkeys became so scarce that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $100.00. However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of the man.In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, "Look at all the monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $50.00 and when the man comes back, you can sell them to him for $100.

The villagers queued up with all their savings to buy the monkeys.After that, neither the assistant nor the businessman could be found anywhere but the monkeys were everywhere!

This is what happens in our stock market if one is greedy ...............
*********************************************************************************
Our markets corrected last week and the pain has started. Why did this happen? It was due to markets being overheated and reaching milestones in quick time. I had clearly mentioned that markets should correct alteast around 18500 before proceeding further and if this does not happen we will see huge meltdown in markets. Markets raced to 19K and were zooming to 20K but then came the correction.

US markets tanked on Friday and we have seen a big fall. This will cause our markets to open in a big way down and added to this the F& O expiry is on thursday. There will be huge panic in the market today and lot of volatility will be seen.

TCS has won a big deal and so try to pick up some shares in the downtrend. It is a good opportunity to buy in the correction mode. There is no need for any hurry as you are already on the sidelines and you can still remain there for couple of days atleast before the dust settles and we will see some consolidation. Markets will eventually start the journey to 18K and then to 20K but it will take some time as strong hands will enter the market and the correction makes market healthy.

Market Comments - Sense Prevails

Finally some 'sense' has prevailed and markets corrected meaningfully. Reliance industries results were above market expectations but there was no bonus or stock split ie scenario 2 which I guessed correctly. The results came in the evening and not during market hours but I believe the news was sensed by market and so came the correction.

This was bound to happen as I had said that we had seen on wednesday was only a trailer.

What happens next ? Markets may open with a gap up opening again which may give wrong signals that recovery is imminent but selling should come at every rise now.I feel there is still lot of pain is left in the system. Markets will correct further and based on past experience it will take some time before markets recover and they are back on the way to destination 20K.

GMR Infra posted a consolidated net profit of 49 crores but these results are not significant now as the future profits are going to count. Buy GMR Infra from below 150 levels onwards.

Powergrid touched close to 150 as I had said and now see where it goes.

IFCI is giving another opportunity make free shares. Buy at lows and make some more free shares in this.

Rel Comm is one stock to watch out for. This stock did not rise as much as the other reliance pack and is now available at good price. Keep a track on this and buy for a target of 1000 Rs in next 3 months.

Oil prices have touched $90 per barrel and market cannot continue ignoring this. When there is rally all bad news are set aside but when the markets start tanking even a slight negative news is taken in a big way.

Wait for some stability before you buy. Enjoy the show from sidelines !!!!!!!!!

"To bear failure with courage is the best proof of character that anyone can give."

Please post your feedback through comments about your experience on this blog.

Stock picks link :
http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/10/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs :
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com/
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com/
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com/

Market Comments - King to decide the next move

What happened yesterday was only a trailer of what could happen in future. When the markets are overheated like what has happened so far, they can collapse in a jiffy was the message to all investors. However markets recovered smartly as FM came and did the required damage control in his own style. Every one wanted the Bull Run to continue and set aside the 'SENSE' in SENSEX. What we are now going to see is only 'X' the unknown quantity rather than the BSE Index called SENSEX.

The whole drama was executed meticulously just to give the FII an indication that the governmean do anything they can if the markets are taken to dizzy heights in an unwanted manner. What happens next? What should we do now? Should we enter the market or wait on sidelines? These are many questions that are cropping up your mind....right????

I would suggest that if you are a new investor and if you want to invest for long term then buy my recommended scrips with 50% of your capacity and then hold the 50% of your capacity in correction mode. You can do this after Reliance declares results today.

Reliance (" King of Indian Stocks ") is going to declare its results today and market expectations are high on the stock split or bonus news. This was the precise reason it closed in positive and also the main reason we could see only 3oo odd points down in the sensex instead of 500 points yesterday.

There are four scenarios possible for Reliance results.

1. Reliance will declare good results and also announce stock split / bonus. Market will be on fire and should touch 20K in next 2 to 3 days. All fundamentals will be kept aside and we should see big rally till 21 K is reached or even 22K. Enter the market, go with the FII and try to make some stocks free of cost or exit with profits.

2. Reliance results are good but no stock split or bonus is announced. We may see some correction in Reliance scrip and market may fall but recovery is possible quickly.

3. Reliance results are poor and no stock split or bonus. Markets could fall sharply and correction can continue for a week or so. One should do stock specific activity and then buy scrips during the fall at every level.

4. Reliance results are poor but stock split or bonus announced. This is very unlikely but Markets will be volatile and markets may move either ways and uptrend may continue.

I expect scenario 2 could happen though my guess could be wrong. Let us wait and see what will happen.

Powergrid corporation is zooming like anything and it is baffling every one. All powerstocks are being rerated but I still believe it is very highly priced now and though it can move to 150 rs in short term seeing the current trend it will then remain flat between 90 and 150 for atleast next few months as it has run up substantially.

IFCI is still a safe bet in this market and hold on to it with patience. If stake sale does not happen also IFCI will get rerated as it is soon going to be a debt free company.

Rathi Bars IPO is going to start today but I advise investors to avoid this issue.

Markets should open up with a gap again and then consolidate before the key event of Reliance results unfolds.

Stock picks link :

http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/10/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs :
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com/
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com/
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com/

What is P-Notes and why did SEBI put restrictions

P-Notes are like our mutual funds where lot of money is collected from various investors in different countries and routed through registered FII in India.

There was lot of money flowing in form of P-Notes and this was taking our markets to unchartered territories. Now if SEBI did not put restrictions, our markets would have even touched 25K by this year end and later if a crash was to happen, it would have damaged the UPA govt reputation. This is why SEBI acted now to control the flows and also it acted as a signal for investors to exit and for new investors not to enter.

What to do now?

DO NOT panic and stay cool. If you have followed my blog from the beginning and have a portfolio with zero cost concept then you would not worry and instead you can now go for bargain hunting with many of your stocks and sell at higher levels again to add some more shares free of cost to your portfolio.

For those who have invested heavily and have not followed the above concept, do not panic but instead wait for opportunity to buy good stocks at lower levels and then stay invested for 2 years to reap benefits.

Please wait for some stability in markets before you buy.

Market Comments - The X Factor

sorry for posting my comments late but I could not access this site for some time and hence late....

As I have been mentioning in my comments that markets are overheated and correction was required. This did not happen and that is why SEBI had to intervene to see that some correction happens. When you take out Sense from Sensex then ony X remains which usually means unknown thing.

The FII in their eagerness to grab a pie in our market have pumped in money like anything and have taken market to dizzy heights. This made the government to worry as if this continues we can see a meltdown when it goes to new heights like 25K. At that point a 10000 point crash will be there and the small investors or those who entered in the last leg will suffer heavily. This will have impact on the government as elections are due in 2009. This is the precise reason govt has asked to SEBI for ways to control this flow.


(Markets will open down 700 plus points and we can see even correction upto 1000 points unless FM Intervenes and sets aside SEBI order. This will be like a warning to FII and even for small investors not to enter markets. Watch out the action today !!!!!!!)

This was my comments that I wanted to post but now Markets have even crashed and hit the lower circuit.

This is after 2004 May crash that we are seeing this Crash. I was cautioning about this thing in my comments since last week.

I hope all my blog readers have benefited from my comments and are safe.

Now please wait for your chance to pick good stocks at low prices !!!!!!!!!!

Maytas Infra IPO allotment Out

Check Maytas Infra allotment by using the below link.

http://203.199.177.158/ipo/

Stock Queries Updated 16th October

I have updated stock queries till 16th October in my blog

http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com.

Please note that queries posted in that blog only will be answered.

Reliance Update

Reliance industries moved up smartly with speculation of bonus or stock split likely to come in the board meeting on 18th October. There are lot of rumours floating on this scrip and punters are having great time in moving this scrip up on speculations.

Watch out for 18th October when results are going to be announced. Will any other news come out???

IFCI Update

IFCI Ltd has decided to give 30 banks and financial institutions, including
LIC, an option to convert a portion of their debt exposure in the country’s oldest financial institution into equity.

IFCI on Monday reported a net profit of Rs 744.15 crore on a total income of Rs 1,081.17 crore for the six months period ended September 30. The company had recorded a net profit of Rs 100.22 crore on total income of Rs 585.05 crore in the same period last year.

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There are news that bidders may back out of this due to the equity dilution or stake sale delay but as per the MD of IFCI stake sale process will be completed in next two and half months.

Now based on current valuations, IFCI should get even 150 Rs and getting 26% stake at 120 Rs will be very attractive for bidders. Stay invested in IFCI and watch out for more updates.

Market Comments - Another Milestone Achieved

Bulls achieved another milestone in just 4 days. We may see a new record of 1000 points in one day if this pace continues. I had given two probable scenarios of markets correcting at current levels or then markets racing to 19K and above before correcting. I had choosen the first option as the most probable but bulls wanted to prove me wrong. This is democracy and so majority opinion counts and hence I have no problems in relaxing and watching the show.

Dollars are raining and it is pouring like as if there is no tomorrow. All fundamentals are being kept aside and there is just mad rush. We are hearing of a even a pan wala now talking of stock markets and papers reporting about how records are being achieved.

I have seen some investors making 40 times returns in one year in one stock but they do not want to book profits and they say they will do so after 25K is achieved. Are we not ignoring the fundamentals? How long can we do this?

Just 6 months back analysts were saying that our markets are bit expensive at a PE of 15 to 16 and now when we have a PE Of 22, people are ignoring this and instead saying target of 22K as next and 25 K after that. Remember that the same FII who are investing now can pull out their money in a jiffy and markets will literally crash if they do so.

I am not being pessimisstic in my approach but just giving enough caution. I still believe it is not going to be easy to scale 20K mark but if you do not want to miss the show then enter the markets for short term basis and try to play safe. Always keep 75% of your capital ready to enter after the correction.

Play with only 25% of your capital now as the Firangs are in a great mood to invest. You too can enjoy the show but be cautious as we are now playing in the market throwing caution to the wind.

I have updated my targets for the stocks in my previous post. Please keep posting your comments about this blog and I think very soon my blog hits will catch up with the sensex :)

Comments on Current Stock Picks

Here is the updated consolidated list of stock picks and my comments on them

1.BAJAJ AUTO LTD

Demerger will create value for stock holders. My target is 4000 in 1 to 1.5 years. Already stock has run up from my recommended level in September but still target is intact.

2. BHEL :

Good order book position. Can expect an appreciation of 50% in one year.

Stock has appreciated well and target of 3000 is on cards.


3.DLF Limited :

Target of 1100 in one year. Good stock to buy in Real estate. Based on Annual EPS of 40, it is quoting at 15 PE currently and is undervalued.

We are close to this target and revised target for DLF should be 1400.


4.ICICI BANK LTD.

One more good banking stock to pick in private sector. One can gain around 30% in one year time.

I think it surpassed my target. It should gain another 30% from here in one year.


5. INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD

Technology stocks which were once darling of the markets have taken back seat now and are not finding any takers but I still believe Infosys will deliver decent returns even in adverse conditions. I expect a target of 2500 by March End.

I still maintain my target.

6. Reliance Communications Limited

Good stock to hold in portfolio. Expect a return of 40% in one year from current levels.

Rel Comm has multiple triggers and next target is 1000 based on its subsidiaries listing in foreign exchanges. We should see target of 1500 in one year from now.


7. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD

Target of 2500 in one year. It will move with Sensex and retail story can fuel this upto 4000 in 2 years.

One year target was achieved in one month now I expect 3200 target in next one year.


8. Reliance Petroleum Limited

Revised target for RPL is 250 in one year.

9.PTC INDIA LIMITED

Target of 125 in one year.

It should now be 150 in one year

10. Sun TV Network Limited

Target of 450 in one year time. Has good potential in terms of revenues..

11. GMR Infrastructure Limited - My favorite pick.Hold this for 3 to 4 years to reap a multi fold bonanza in this. Target of 2000 in 2 years and 4000 in 4 years.

My favorite pick only did not perform as well as it should but I still maintain my targets as it will catch up soon on any news. Hyderabad Airport will start one month ahead than expected start of march 2008.


12. IDBI

Good banking stock with value unlocking to take place. Target of 175 in 6 Months time.

Target revised to 250 in next 6 months.


13.STATE BANK OF INDIA

Value Unlocking and lot of potential left in this. Target of 2500 in one year time.

We should see target of 2500 in next 6 months.


14.RELIANCE CAPITAL LTD

Another good stock to buy. Stock has potential to give 50% returns in one year. If bank licence is obtained stock may give 100% returns in one year.

It has moved up from 1000 levels to 1800. Revised target is 2500 in one year.

15. Powergrid Corporation :

Target of 200 in one year. Buy at dips in correction phase around 90 levels.

16. Jai Prakash associates :

Stock split from 10 Rs to 2 Rs approved by share holders. Buy for Target of 2000 in next one year from current levels of around 1275.

Speculative Stocks or Punters Favourites

1.IFCI LTD

IFCI has announced good Q2 results. Stock should be re rated and hence for long term it can go to 250 Rupees. Long term investors can stay put in this for next 1 year.

For short term investors 120 to 15o Rs will be there in next 4 months.

2.JAI CORP LIMITED :

Stock split to 1 rs and bonus of 1:1 given which gave 20 shares for 1 share held.

Target of 20000 already achieved instead of 10000 given on Sept5th and it is moving to 25000 now.

3.NAGARJUNA FERTILIZERS LTD

Stake sale rumour making this stock move up fast. Target of 60 being predicted.

Target achieved. Sources now suggest 100 Rs on this similar to IFCI.


4.TELEDATA INFORMATICS LTD

Stock keeps moving from 55 to 70.

Keep track and buy. Target of 125 in one year if demerger takes place

Target should be reached now as high court approval achieved.

5. Arvind Mills :

I had asked to buy around 55. Target of 70 is achieved. One can exit from this and remain only in zero cost shares now.

I will keep adding more stocks to this list and the link will be shown in my market comments so that it will be easy to pick.

Teledata on Fire

Teledata info moved up on Friday and it is up today also by around 12% as it got the required approval from court for demerger.

Teledata was one of my picks in speculative stocks.

http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/09/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

It should now go to the first immediate target of 90 and then 125 in next 15 to 30 days. However remember that punters play in this stock.

Monday Morning Market Musing - Wait for Opportunity

Markets tanked on Friday led by Reliance as there was no news of stock split or bonus as was expected. There was lot of speculation that stock split could be announced in the AGM but when this did not come, profit booking started and punters started exiting.

The only good thing to cheer about is on the political stability front. We are now certain that there will not be any mid term elections and cong is even ready to dump the nuclear deal to appease the left parties. For the moment this issue is resolved.

Markets should open positively today based on the politcal cues adn global cues but I believe that at every rise there will be profit booking and hence we will see correction. If this does not happen and if markets move up again to 19k then we may see a huge meltdown before we touch 20K. The correction at that time will be sharp. I however believe we will have some correction this week as probability is more and not many triggers left for Bulls to lead the charge.

IFCI will remain in lime light till the bidding process is complete and I believe those who stay invested in this counter should get 120 to 130 Rs in next 4 months if every thing goes well. Those who are holding zero cost shares in this counter will not have anything to worry.

Powergrid corp is having high PE at present but I believe this is due to the future growth and power sector re rating. However please wait for this stock to dip before you make fresh purchase. It should come down.

To make a comparision, Infosys used to quote at a PE of 35 just around 9 months back. It is now quoting at less than 25 PE on its FY08 expected EPS of 80. Powergrid corp is now at a PE of close to 30 which shows how the power sector has been in lime light for the past few months.

I believe one can accumulate IT stocks by investing small amounts of profits . Infosys is the best bet for this purpose. It has the ability to withstand rupee appreciation and considering the growth plans it should give decent returns from here as the fall in IT stocks has been overdone.

If the dollar quotes at 41 levels again and PE for Infosys goes to 25 also, you will get 25% min on just the PE value. Added to this if IT sops continue even beyond FY09 though chances are less in my view, it will add fuel to fire to IT stocks. Stay invested in Infosys and try to put some of your profits in Infosys so as to reap rich rewards and risk will be less.

Weekend Market Comments - Bears in Control

I will be posting my weekend market comments on every saturday for weekend surfers.... :)

Markets Corrected yesterday as I had mentioned that we were in high risk zone and correction was badly needed. Markets have run up so fast that even our FM was concerned about the rise.

Whenever anything rises abnormally then there will be correction and then pause. Fewe months back GMR Infra moved from 750 to 1000 in 2 days time and since then it is struggling around 800 levels. GMR Infra is a good stock but it has run up way ahead and hence it is consolidating now. Those who bought it at 1000 levels will have to wait for some time before it moves up.

Similarly Sensex has moved up way ahead and it is time for correction and then consolidation. The earlier it corrects the better or else it would be a vertical crash if it moves up higher and higher without correcting.

There seems to be good news on the political front with govt not trying to poke left parties and hence mid term elections are ruled out for now. However every rise in market now will be met with profit booking and hence we will see correction next week. Remember that market had risen even when there was bad news and hence the reverse should happen now. It will correct even on good news and if there is even sligh amount of bad cues, we will see more drop in the sensex.

IFCI is one stock which is going to test your patience and those who bought it at 100 levels will have to wait for 4 months atleast before clarity surfaces. Those who have bought it at lower levels and have booked profits and kept zero cost stock can try to add more at lower levels and sell at higher levels.

Focus on Powergrid corporation and try to buy it in the correction mode. It is surely a good stock for decent returns in next 1 year.

Market Comments - High Risk Zone

Markets are moving at a fast pace and even Infy results have been ignored as expected in my yesterdays comments. However this cannot continue for long and if it happens the retail investors will get caught on the wrong side.

We should have had good corrections but due to huge FII inflows this did not happen. However market cannot go like this and so I have been cautioning you to be careful and only enter for a quick exit. DO NOT worry that you have missed the last leg of the rally. If you had zero cost portfolio you would have enjoyed the rally. Once 19K is crossed it is time for you to even sell your zero cost shares and wait for correction. Even your zero cost shares, you can make some money when market corrects as it is overdue. Start selling at every rise in terms 0f 10% at every 100 points or so. Correction is a must and it will happen. If this does not stop here then there will be a huge meltdown. Be cautious and limit your exposure.

Sensex EPS for FY08 is expected to be 850 and for FY09 around 950 to 1000. So our sensex is at a PE of 22 for FY08 and even for FY09 also we have a PE of 19 to 20. Two years back we had a meltdown because the PE of 16 was also considered high. You can just imagine at what risk level we are. If sensex was to correct to PE of even 17 which is higher markets can correct 4000 points !!!!!!!!

Powergrid corporation target is 200 in one year but accumulate at lower levels. It will come down very soon as it has run up considerably. 80 to 90 price is possible in this depending on market correction. One stock which is moving non stop is Jai Corporation. It is because of the SEZ profits that Jai Corp is going to get as the owner of Jai Corp Anand Jain is close to Mukesh Ambani. It will cross 20K ( before split price) today.


My stock picks link :
http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/09/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com

Stock Queries Updated 11th October 2007

Stock Queries posted in the blog http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com have been updated. Keep posting your queries there.

Supreme Infra Allotment Status Out

Check Supreme Infra Allotment status by clicking the link here. You need to give your application number.

http://www.bigshareonline.com/IPO/ipostatus.aspx

Market Comments - Infy Results Disappointing

Infosys results were just on target with net profit of 1100 crores. The guidance in terms of rupee for FY08 will disappoint market as it is now at 79.88 at the upper end which means the guidance is lowered a bit. Q2 is good quarter for all tech companies and so this will not be good for IT companies as the IT index is going to be down for sure.

Why are markets rising so sharply? See the below news from times of india.....

It's raining dollars. For the week ended September 28, India's forex reserves increased by almost $12 billion. This is more than the $10 billion that came into the country between April 2005 and March 2006.

This was the precise reason market rose sharply creating records. FII believe that rupee will appreciate further and this will help them make more profits.

Consider the scenario when dollar was 46. If an FII invested 100 dollars in market investment would be 4600 rs at that time. Now assume the stock price is same then the investment amount in Rupees will be same as 4600 rs only. In terms of dollar it is however 115 dollars based on current dollar rupee exchange of 40 which means 15% appreciation. This is why FII are loving India. Add to this the stock appreciation you can understand why they want to invest in India.

How will markets react today? There will be initial knee jerk reaction and we should see IT stocks going down and even market may go down initially. However considering strong FII inflow I believe other stocks should pull up. However wait till RIL AGM tomorrow and if RIL stock split is announced then markets will be on fire again ignoring infy results.

More clarity will surface after RIL AGM. Will RIL deliver this time? let us see....

Infosys Results - What can we expect from this?

Tomorrow Infosys is going to come out with Results and lot of expectations are there.

Market expectations are that Infosys sales will be up around 8 to 10% and profit around 2%. The key is the guidance revision. FY08 Guidance for EPS was around 80. If Infy can up this to 83 or 84 then market will be pretty pleased with this and Infy can jump another 100 to 200 Rs on account of this.

If the results are not good and guidance is around 81, stock may react sharply as it has run up considerably. Markets will also depend on Infosys results and usually Infy delivers good numbers in Q2 which is a strong quarter.

Watch out for Infy results.

Market Comments - Never Say Never Again

Bulls were on rampage yesterday after the initial lull and though I expected the rally to start after couple of days, it started in a jiffy. If you read my comments yesterday where I had mentioned...."Wait for the signals to enter fully. However buy in small quantity the above stocks so that you do not miss the bus when rally starts again."

Bears did not expect the reversal to happen so quickly after the fall on Monday and the reversal was so sharp that the shorts had to be covered and most of the short sellers were badly trapped. This is the precise reason I never advise short selling. One should buy only puts if we feel market correction is likely. This way you minimise your loss and also they act as hedging to your equity stocks.

Markets will open with a bang again and we should see a good rally before some profit booking happens. There will be volatility again as markets have run up quiet sharply recording the biggest gain in single day. At this pace we should see 19K very soon as US markets also rallied smartly on hope of another FED rate cut. If this happens then RBI may also cut rates here and we should some good amount of buying in banking stocks and this Dipawali should be very bright with 20K also in sight.

However all said, there are many other factors which may spoil the bulls party. We are in such a position that even a slight amount of bad news could pull the sensex sharply. Remember that if 800 points rally is possible then 1500 downfall is also easily possible at this level. If you are a long term investor be prepared for it. Those who are entering for short term should be cautious and book profits at every level to be safe.

Jai Corporation is hitting circuits even after ex bonus and stock split and currently stock is close to touching 1000 which means 20000 ex bonus and stock split. I had given target of 10K when it was 6K. Later revised to 15K.

IFCI, Nagarjuna Fertilisers, Tata Tele, Arvind Mills all are moving on speculation and so enjoy the rally. IDBI, SBI will be good performers in banking.

If you remember that I had recommended Infosys as the best stock in IT sector which will perform against all odds. Infy contributed 152 points in the rally from 17K to 18K and gave decent returns to those who bought it around 1750 to 1800 levels.

Powergrid, NTPC, BHEL all will have bright future for long term and if nuclear deal materialises then these stocks will have more value. Remember to pick stocks which have unique model like GMR infra whose business model is different with good revenues assured.

At present try to enter the market for quick gains and be prepared for small losses in case market is volatile. If you are a long term investor then stay put with your zero cost stock portfolio. Use this opportunity to add some more zero cost stocks to your portfolio.

I will keep you guiding on a daily basis. Please post your feedback in this blog by leaving your comments.

Special Market Comments -Gone with the Wind

I know that you must be waiting to see my comments and it will be too late for my comments in the morning when a sensational run by Bulls takes past my destination 18K. That is why I am posting my special comments in the evening. After 18K what next. It is Destination 20K but not so early. We will have to wait quiet sometime on this.

Those who bought IFCI, RNRL, RIL, GMR Infra, SBI, IDBI after reading my market comments must have enjoyed the rally today. IFCI was a gem giving a great opportunity for those who bought it after market opened as I had said that IFCI had bottomed out. More than 12% returns in a single day. That is punters at their best in this bull market.

Their seems to be some huge activity happening there and leave worry for some time aside and enjoy the rally. However you should be very fast and make exits with small gains. Those who have exited earlier and have not entered yet can try to make stock specific entries like I had given today morning. When markets can rise 800 points in a day they can even fall 1500 points in a day. Be cautious and play with the punters.

Markets have run up substantially on account of pure speculation and way ahead of fundamentals when FY09 expected EPS is 1000 which means sensex PE is very high and so the volatility will remain high.

The reason I am giving cautious signals is to be on the safe side rather than get caught on the wrong side. The returns will give more joy to those who followed my zero cost price stock concept. They must be jumping in joy on seeing sensex make such moves. RIL alone contributed 185 points and Infosys scored a century.

Relax for the time being. I will keep you guiding on markets.

GMR Infra Split Shares Allocation Complete

GMR Infra allocation from 10 Rs to 2 Rs face value has been completed. All the share holders who were holding GMR Infra till the ex-date of 27th September 2007 have now been allocated 5 shares instead of the previous 1 share they were holding.

Market Comments - Stock Specific Activity

Markets corrected finally which was overdue. There were lot of stocks which corrected more than required and so one can start entering these stocks slowly. GMR Infra gives good opportunity to enter.

IFCI also once again the bottom is seen for now and so the uptrend could start again. IFCI will be punters delight till the completion of bidding process is over. It will keep moving up and down and those who play in this will enjoy the up and down moves.

RNRL has also corrected well and this stock could be good for long term. Powergrid Corporation is another stock to buy with long term vision. Buy at every dip and hold it for long term. You will reap rich rewards.

Bihar Tubes is another speculative stock which is being latched on by market players. Those who enjoy playing with speculative stocks may enter this stock for quick returns though risk is always there.

Markets may be volatile today though the weakness could continue for couple of days. However the key now is going to be the Results. According to market sources RIL may announce stock split which has been long due and this rumours are floating for long. However this time the stock split may be announced and RIL being heavy weight, markets may be on fire.

IDBI and SBI could do well in the reversal which may happen in couple of days. Wait for the signals to enter fully. However buy in small quantity the above stocks so that you do not miss the bus when rally starts again.


My stock picks link :
http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/09/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com

Monday Morning Market Musing - Patience is the key

US markets closed strongly on Friday and so the opening will be very strong in our markets also. We should touch 18K in the opening trade and then we may see some volatility again.

I am still of the view that you should refrain yourself from the market for atleast another week and enjoy the show. I will guide you on a daily basis and only after we get the required signals we will enter the market. However if you cannot refrain yourself from market, then you can trade on a day to day basis with momentum stocks like Reliance, Reliance capital, SBI, Infosys, GMR Infra, IFCI etc. However this is a very risky thing to do. Choice is yours.

Powergrid corp is an excellent scrip for long term. However its price has run up more than what the fundamentals warrant. Try to buy this scrip if it comes to around 80 levels. It should come to level when we see some correction.

IFCI has corrected as expected and there will be lot of volatility in this and the stock will keep moving up from 80 to 100 levels depending on market conditions and news flow in this counter.

"Patience is the key and so hold your nerves and enjoy the show"

Power Grid IPO - Spectacular Listing on the bourses

Those who invested in Powergrid IPO ( my rating was 7/10) must be enjoying the Spectacular debut and the fantastic returns they got.

Powergrid was issed at 52 Rs and it is currently trading around 100. It touched a high of 109.50. Those who invested 1 lakh rupees have been alloted 286 shares and so they have made nearly 15K profit. 15% return in less than one month !

Do you want more IPO's like power grid.....Yes.....Yeh Dil Mange More !!!!

Market Comments - Where Eagles Dare

Bulls are in control fully and not allowing bears the chance to bring down the market. However it is only a matter of time before bears can strike back. Markets are entering into unchartertered territory with lot of inflows every day.

Maytas Infra IPO was subscribed 100 times in FII section which shows the current appetite of FII. However please refrain from entering the market now. It is time for you to book profits and sit on cash. DO NOT worry about markets moving up as the movements can be either way and huge volatility is expected.

Jai Corp has crossed 15K and still going strong. It is going like Unitech way and those who bought recently around 6000 must be enjoying the rally.

IFCI has come down as expected and you can see 80 level also in this. You can then enter this again to make some more free stocks. Please see my stock picks link shown below for my stocks and if you are planning to enter now wait for correction before you buy the stocks.

Powergrid Corporation is listing today and if you get this stock below 70, grab it like anything. You can make 50% returns in this in 6 months time. It is a great stock to own.

I will add some more stocks to my stock pick list very soon. Keep visiting my blog for market updates. Also please post your feedback by leaving your comment so that I can know what more you expect from me.


My stock picks link :
http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/09/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

My other blogs
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com

Stock Queries Updated 5th October

I have updated stock queries posted till October 4th in my blog
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com

Keep posting your queries and I will try to respond faster. :)

Know your Allotment for Koutons and CCC

please have your application number ready and click the link so that you can enter it for knowing your allotment.

For Koutons the link is
http://203.199.177.158/kristel/krilipo.asp


For CONSOLIDATED CONSTRUCTION CONSORTIUM LIMITED the link is

http://203.199.177.158/kristel/ccclipo.asp

Maytas Infra Allotment Chances

Maytas infra was given poor rating by many Analysts but I had given my rating as 7 /10 and asked to subscribe. FII portion was subscribed nearly 100 times which itself shows the strength of the IPO.

My view was that if the retail part will be subscribed by 15 times, then those who apply for max of 270 shares ie for 1 lakh band would get firm allotment of 18 shares. The issue just got subscribed 15.41 times and may be some price bids being rejected all will get firm allotment in the 270 shares category.

All retail investors will get 18 shares alloted and only the allotment chances will differ.

Those who applied for 270 Shares allotment chances will be 98%.

Those who applied for 252 Shares allotment chances will be 92%.

Those who applied for 234 Shares allotment chances will be 85%.

Those who applied for 216 Shares allotment chances will be 78%.

Those who applied for 198 Shares allotment chances will be 71%.

Those who applied for 180 Shares allotment chances will be 64%.

Those who applied for 162 Shares allotment chances will be 58%.

Those who applied for 144 Shares allotment chances will be 51%.

Those who applied for 126 Shares allotment chances will be 45%.

Those who applied for 108 Shares allotment chances will be 38%.

Those who applied for 90 Shares allotment chances will be 32%.

Those who applied for 72 Shares allotment chances will be 26%.

Those who applied for 54 Shares allotment chances will be 20%.

Those who applied for 36 Shares allotment chances will be 13%.

Those who applied for 18 Shares allotment chances will be 7%.

Good Luck !!!!!!!!!

Market comments - Wait and Watch

Markets will be volatile like yesterday when there was a fall of 600 points in 1 hour. The best thing is to do is wait and watch.

Markets will most likely correct and there will be huge volatility.

Maytaes Infra IPO closes today.

IPO Analysis and Ratings - MAYTAS Infra

Maytas Infra Ltd.
Issue opens on : Sept 27, 2007
Issue closes on : Oct 04, 2007
Price Band : Rs 320-370
Minimum application :18 equity shares and in multiples of 18 equity shares thereafter.

My rating : 7 / 10

MAYTAS infra is promoted by SATYAM group promoters. In future Infrastructure stocks are going to do well and since MAYTAS comes from Satyam group, this stock is attracting attention from FII.

Financials : Based on last year EPS of 9, Maytas looks expensive with PE of 40 plus on upper price band but with this year EPS expected of 15, Maytas will command PE Of around 25 on upper price band of 370.

Ideally the price should have been between 250 to 300 but based on current market euphoria promoters are trying to extract more premium. This is obvious in a bull market. There are many Analysts who recommended not to subscribe for this but my view is to subscribe for this IPO for listing gains.

Expected Listing Price : Present Grey market premium is around 150 plus and so we can expect a listing price of around 500 depending on market conditions at time of listing.

Retail Investor strategy : There are around 26 lakh shares for retail and as on today FII part is oversubscribed by 9 times where as retail part it is 0.36 but since most of the retail applications come on the last day, I expect this issue to be oversubscribed heavily ie around 20 times on last day.

If you apply for one lakh there will be firm allotment chance if the issue is subscribed by 15 times. Above this there will not be firm allotment.

Good Luck !!!!!!

Market Update - Bulls in Flow

Bulls in flow and market a kissing distance away from 18K. What is happening? every analyst has given a call for market correction but markets are in full swing. However I still advise you to be cautious and this kind of euphoria is unwarranted and sharp correction is expected.

If you had bought stocks earlier and already booked partial profits, now book some more profits and sit with cash. As explained in my today's market comments, the last wicket partnership is fruitful and runs continue to flow.

IFCI, Reliance Capital, SBI, DLF, Reliance, Reliance Petro, GMR Infra, Jai Corporation, Nagarjuna Fertilisers etc which were my picks have given decent returns and it is time to take a break. I will guide you once again as to when to pick the stocks again.

DO NOT get frustrated with the last wicket. It will happen soon. Be safe.

Market Comments - Not much steam left

Markets are close to running out of steam. Bulls are in control for the moment controlling the market. The situation is akin to a cricket match where a batting team is being guided by their top order batsman but he has only last batsman to give company to him. When will the innings end is a big question? Its only a matter of time before the reversal starts though it looks like bulls are in control but there is not much steam left now.

Those who are interested in F & O can start buying NIFTY put of 5000 strike price and wait for the reversal. You can reap rich rewards.

IFCI has reached close to its peak and the remaining rally will be only after inviting the shortlisted bidders for the price bid. If markets correct IFCI can correct heavily. Follow my Zero stock concept and stay put in your free shares only.

Reliance capital was around 1000 in correction time and now close to doubling. Fantastic returns in this. Almost all Reliance stocks have run up considerably and this warrants lot of caution. There are many other stocks which appreciated in this run which warrants caution. When changu mangu stocks run up, it is time for one to take back seat and wait for correction.

Market Comments - Bulls in Control

Bulls are in control for the present but how long they sustain. We had 10 sessions where bulls had a fast and fury run. It is time for some correction but as I said market corrects in its own style and not when we expect it to correct. That is the beauty of market.

Today is Market holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti. Markets otherwise would have risen smartly on global cues. I hope all of you are enjoying your holiday.

I am updating my blog stock markets info which is for beginners and those who want to know the art of investments. please visit the blog for information and also you can inform your freinds or relatives who want to make some money in stock markets.

http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com

Monday Morning Market Musing - Looking for Direction?

Markets have been moving up due to strong inflows and they have moved up pretty fast in the last two weeks. Ideally the situation is all set for correction and majority of the analysts opine that correction is a must now. However remember that market corrects in its own style and correction does not come always when we want.

There is another view that heavy inflows are expected and so market will move up to 18000 pretty quickly on account of the inflows. I will however stick to the first theory that markets will correct soon as correction is a must if the Bull run is to sustain. In case markets move up sharply till 18K or close to it, we will see a very sharp correction or meltdown.

Remember to pick up growth stocks when correction occurs and the best stocks are there in my stock picks.

http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/09/comments-on-current-stock-picks.html

Powergrid IPO is likely to be listed this Friday and I expect it to start around 80 Rs. I will once again review my picks and post it afresh as we are in a new month now. I also thank all those who have posted their comments and encouraging me to work more hard for benefit of all.

Watch out for MAYTAS infra IPO review and Analysis. I will post it soon.

My other blogs :
http://indianstockmarketsquery.blogspot.com
http://indianstockmarketsinfo.blogspot.com
http://calculatemyemi.blogspot.com