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Market Comments - Knee Jerk Reaction

Markets will react negatively to news of Benazir Bhutto's killing in Pakistan yesterday but it will be a knee jerk reaction. When we had blasts in India and that too in Mumbai only, our markets reacted negatively but the next day we had recovered very sharply.

History shows that every time there is some event of global terrors, markets tend to go down but recover very sharply. History will repeat again, so there is nothing to worry.This is a very good opportunity for those who are waiting to enter the markets or those who want to make some quick money in short term.

GMR Infra is planning to list it's energy subsidiary GMR Energy and going by the current favorite sector in market which is power sector, the valuation will be much higher. GMR Infra will definitely give you 40% to 50% returns in 2 months.

Reliance will also give very good returns in next 2 months and please do not miss the opportunit y to buy this. I am very bullish on this and very soon you will see stock split coming in this.

IFCI is also another stock which will be in accumulation mode and may be range bound for sometime between 70 to 85 but just check the price of IFCI after 6 months.

DLF may rise on the news of Demerger plans.Real estate major DLF plans to raise $5 billion over the next three years by listing five of its business units, including DLF Homes, DLF Retail, DLF Hotels, DLF Utilities and DLF Infrastructure. There are no plans to further dilute equity in group flagship DLF. The eventual strategy is to make DLF a holding company with considerable equity stakes in the listed entities in addition to being an incubator for new businesses

"A successful Investor in stock markets is one who can see tomorrow and beyond it and not worry about today....."

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This is my last post of Market Comments in this blog and From Monday, December 31st, my market comments will be available at the blog

http://indianmarketcomments.blogspot.com

This blog will be available for registered members only.

Please see the post on registration details for registering.

http://indianstockmarketscomment.blogspot.com/2007/12/registration-details-update.html

I thank all the blog readers for the great association we had in the last 4 months.

"SALAAM NAMASTHE"

Market Comments - Bulls in Full Flow

Bulls were in flow for second day in a row and the short sellers were trapped so badly that there was no profit booking seen towards closure as the number of shorts were very high.

Reliance was in full flow and it is now at 2900 and just another 100 away from the magical 3000. Once this is crossed we will see lot of action and the news of stock split coming soon.

Jai Prakash Associates was one stock which was not talked about me but it moved from 1275 before split to cross my target of 2000 which was one year target but it was achieved in 2 months.

DLF was another star performer and it crossed 1000 yesterday and now the revised target is 1500 in one year but it may be achieved soon.

GMR Infra touched 248 and we should see it move towards my target of 325 by March 12th.I have given access to all those who completed their registration formalities till Dec 26th.

Tomorrow will be my last post in this blog.

Market Comments - Strong Global Cues Lift Markets

Markets rose smartly on Monday due to strong global cues as expected but the profit booking did not come down as the bears had to cover there positions as there were huge shorts built up.

We will see another strong opening on Wednesday morning and we will see some profit booking coming in later half of the day unless we see huge shorts being covered again.IFCI was one of the star performers of the day.

As I had mentioned that 75 was good level to enter this stock, IFCI was down to 73 but later rose to 81 because of buying interest in this stock and also short covering. There were many smart investors who bought IFCI at 75 levels as they know that 50% returns can be expected in another 6 months. What more we want?

GMR Infra is stuck at 240 levels similar to what happened at 140 levels but it should move to 325 - 350 levels by March 12th when the Hyderabad Airport will open as this will be the major trigger for this. Watch out for the action in GMR Infra in next 2 months.

Watch for our RIL now . There will be lot of action in this stock and once RIL decisively crosses 3000 you can see the real star action in this.There are many speculative stocks to pick and I will give the list of this in coming few days.

Monday Morning Market Musing - Fresh Innings

Good morning to all of you and we are beginning another week of activity but this week will be a short week as tuesday is a market holiday for Christmas. Thursday will be the settlement for this month F & O and so we have only 3 days for the settlement.

There will be lot of volatility due to rollover positions being high and at the same time there are lot of shorts built up. We will see gap up opening as shorts are covered on opening but again we see rollover positions bringing down the market. Those who want to gain in our market need to have two things which are a must. One is discipline and other is patience. If you lack either of these, you may not gain but instead loose your money.

There are many other factors like greed and fear but all these are part of the above two. Most of the investors attitude is to make some quick money but the real gainers will be those who have invested in a disciplined manner and also have enough patience to reap rewards.

Just to give an example : When i recommended GMR Infra at 160 in this blog, it really tested the patience and even went to 140. When sensex zoomed from 17K to close to 21k also GMR was not moving up but I just asked you to be patient. After few months, sensex came back but GMR started its up move and from 160 it went to 260 in less than a month. This is how one can make money with patience. Some stocks even test you for 6 months to 1 year but if you are confident in the stock then stay invested.

Teledata should most probably list this week as per the official communication on its website which says that it has got approval from NSE and BSE for listing. Wait for fresh innings to begin and we should see a good opening in new year.

Please note that my last comments on this blog will be on December 28th and there after I will be posting my comments on the blog http://indianstockmarketcomments.blogspot.com/

Please see my previous post for registering to the blog and please try to complete the activities by 26th December so that the access to the blog will not be delayed.

Registration Details Update

As you all aware that starting January 1st, 2008, I will be writing my comments at the new blog
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This blog will be available for registered users only.

I thank all of you for responding to my registration request. I have completed access to all those who have completed the registration formalities as on 21-Dec-2007.

Please check your mails for access link.

Those who have not yet registered can please complete the formalities which I am mentioning again.

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IFCI Update

As expected IFCI is stuck around 75 to 80 levels due to panic selling by investors who entered around 100 levels to make quick bucks. Added to this the ban in F & O created further problems as there was huge winding of in F & O positions and so this has led to the fall to 75.

Now watch the story of IFCI from here. There are some talks going on with International Finance Corp which is monetary arm of World bank for some stake sale which could be around 10 to 15%. This will be at a much higher price.

There is no need for IFCI investors to worry at this point if you plan to hold it for atleast another 6 months to 1 year.

Market Comments - Rollover Problems

Markets corrected from the peak as there were huge positions to be rolled over in F & O for this month. With Friday and Tuesday being market holidays we have only 4 days to rollover and so this was good opportunity for bulls to rollover when market rallied smartly.

This volatility will be seen till Dec27th but after this there will be a decent rally and there should not be any worry as it will be like beginning a fresh innings. It is a like batsman getting out after making a triple century but it will be different when he begins a fresh innings.

IFCI deal was cancelled which means that the stock will crash on opening today and it can be as high as 20%. This will be disappointing news for short term holders of IFCI but these type of things should be taken in stride. If you see my recos, I have put this stock IFCI in speculation stock list because of the nature in which the stock price was moving up.

Now IFCI can be available at around 80 Rs and it is only short term traders who will suffer the loss. Why? The reason is simple. IFCI wanted a price of 150 Rs as its bid price as there is lot of hidden value in IFCI. If institutions buy at 107 Rs and some one is ready to buy at 111 Rs then is it not the price anything below 100 is a golden opportunity?

IFCI will go down temporarily but just watch the price of IFCI after 3 to 6 Months. You will see the price of 120 again. This means if IFCI is available aroudn 80 today, it will give you 50% returns in 3 to 6 months. If you hold it for long term of 2 to 3 years, you will get excellent returns and target of 500 is possible. Those who are holding free shares in IFCI can continue to hold so and even may be add some at lower levels to make some more free shares after 3 to 6 months.

There will be lot of volatility as we have only 4 days left in this month for the F & O expiry and after Dec 27th, it will be a different story. The advance tax numbers show that profits that will be reported by companies will be good and Reliance numbers look excellent.

Powergrid is planning to move into entertainment sector by tying up with Zee entertainment and it will be additional profits for this. We may see demerger also in future. Please try to get some of powergrid shares at lower levels and hold for 2 to 3 years. This is a must. For short term holders you may get 50% returns ie 200 levels in 6 months.

There is no news from Teledata on listing date but I expect it will be available soon.

My last column in this blog will be on Dec 28th as I will be taking of on Dec 31st. Please register yourself asap to avoid delay in getting your access created. Please see the messages below for registration details.

Query on RPL

There have been lot of queries on RPL regarding the target for RPL. I had recommended RPL on this blog when it was around 120 levels with target of 180 in one year. It has surpassed my target in few months and hit high of 300 and came to 220 levels before I recommended to buy it again around 220 levels.

Many of them accumulated RPL around 190 to 220 levels and I believe many of the blog readers are in profits in case of RPL as it was first recommened at 120 and then around 200 avg price. Those who are stuck at 270 and above levels need to wait patiently and it difficult to predict the target in short term as it depends on market conditions and news flow.

There is one talk that RPL may start production in March 2008 and if this news comes out RPL can shoot up to cross 300 levels again in next 2 months. The major reason RPL is being suppressed is talk of merger with RIL and market corrections.

I am sure RPL will still reach around 500 levels in one year and even if merger with RIL happens one will get atleast 400 Rs worth in RPL.

I hope this clarifies all blog readers doubt.

Market Comments - Golden Opportunity

Markets have corrected again and we are at 3 week low. This should have been a disappointing day for those who are trading in F & O or for those who are looking for short term gains. However for those who are long term investors, it is another golden opportunity to buy stocks at lower levels.

GMR Infra QIP placement was 240 Rs which means that price is going to breached any time and so anything below 240 is like getting the stock at discount. It is for you to use this opportunity if you have not bought this before or would like to add more.

There have been lot of news in media about IFCI bidder being Morgan Stanley and the price as 111 but nothing is confirmed. However the stock conversion price of 107 Rs to institutions act as a good cushion similar to GMR Infra. Those who want to stay put in IFCI for long term can still buy at current levels. Please hold this stock for 2 years and see what price it gets you.

Bajaj Auto Demerger is waiting for court approval and this may be cleared soon. Demerger should be complete in another 2 to 3 months and those who are invested in this can continue to do so. Those who want to make quick money in next 2 to 3 months can enter Bajaj auto now and exit before the demerger record date.

SUN TV has touched 400 and is close to my target of 450 which was given as one year target but it is likely to be achieved in next 2 months.

Reliance Industries is giving you the last opportunity to buy and believe me if something unusual does not happen you may not see Reliance below 3K very soon.

There is nothing to worry if you remember the famous song....
"WO SIKANDAR HI DOSTON KEHLATA HAI,
HAARI BAZI KO JITNA JISE AATA HAI"

You should be more than a Sikandar so that you can say...
"HAARI BAZI KO JITNA HAME AATA HAI"

Market Comments - Tomorrow Never Dies

Markets have corrected sharply and though I was expecting bounce back by evening it did not happen. Bears have taken firm grip and we may see some more downfall in our markets.

As I have been writing in my blog since past 4 months, our markets had run up considerably and hence we need to move in the specified range for some more time before we decisively move to next levels. 21K is going to be tough to crack but it will come soon.

This is an excellent opportunity to buy stocks for those who missed and for those who bought earlier it is opportunity to make some more money.

Reliance industries gives ample opportunity to make good money. If you have missed this earlier or want to add some, it is a good opportunity to do now. Believe me Reliance will hit a target of 10000 in next 3 years considering the aggresive growth plans it has. Considering stock split to 2 Rs, it will be 2000 Rs. ex stock split. I believe split will come around 3200 levels and after split it will start around 800 Rs and then the journey will continue to 2000 Rs.

Reliance Petro will still have its own value unless we hear concrete plans about the merger with RIL. There is nothing to worry for RPL share holders but please continue to hold RIL shares at the same time as it will give good benefit when swap ratio will be in benefit for RIL share holders.

IFCI bid price was around 111 which was less than the 120 to 150 price expected and so the stock will react in short term but in long term IFCI share holders will get good benefit. Reason is simple, If some one is buying 26% stake at 111, the price should be better in one year than this. There is no reason one will buy huge stake at 111 without any benefit.

GMR Infra also corrected to 224 and those who bought around 240 levels can add some in this correction mode.

Powergrid gives an excellent opportunity to buy as it is around 137 and so we can see it cross 150 again after market stabilises.

Please see my stock picks for stocks that I have recommended and buy wherever there is value and if you have not entered early or want to add more.

"Tomorrow Never Dies"

Monday Morning Market Musing - Weak Global Cues

Good Morning to all of you !. It is another Monday morning and another half hour to go before the action in our markets start this week. We have weak global cues to tackle with but we have strong bulls in our market to tackle the cues. We will have weak opening but markets should consolidate and bounce back again.

There have been lot of questions on Reliance and RPL merger and though RPL share holders will be at slight disadvantage when the actual merger takes place, my advice is to stay invested in RPL as the merger may or may not happen. However one should also have Reliance Shares in their portfolio and it should be a balance. I expect that demerger will take place in only in 2009 by the time the valuations will change considerably.

IFCI conversion price for changing the debt to equity of financial institutions may be around 107 Rs and the bids are expected to be around 130 to 150. However all this can change but if you are a long term investor please hold on to get good returns in long term.

Please DO NOT miss the opportunity to buy Reliance Industries if market corrects as I expect it to cross 3000 soon and then the stock split will follow.

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Teledata Update

Teledata shares have been credited to the Demat accounts of all share holders as on Record date of November 23rd 2007.

If you had 100 shares of Teledata previously, you should now see the following in Demat account.

NA 100
NA 50
NA 50

These are the shares for TDIL(Teledata Informatics Limited)
TDMS ( Teledata Marine Solutions)
TDTS ( Teledata Technology Solutions).

If you are holding ICICI direct account, the previous code for teledata was TELDAT but now the new codes should be TELINF, TELMAR and TELTEC for the new companies.

TDIL should be listed next week and the remaining two will list in subsequent weeks.

All the best for TELEDATA share holders.

Market Comments - Another Opportunity

Markets may open flat and go negative. This is another opportunity for those who missed my recos earlier.

Reliance Industries is going to soon go past 3000 and then stock split may be announced. I stronlgy recommend a buy on this at this level if you missed earlier. RPL also will explode soon.

I am signig off for now and will update you in the evening with more news.

Registrations for Blog Access

I have restricted the blog indian stock markets query for registered members only. This way I will be able to answer queries regarding stocks and other advices.Starting January 1st 2008, My Market Comments will be available for registered members only. Please get yourself registered before that.

For information on registrations please mail to marketcomments@yahoo.com

Market Comments - Consolidation Time

Yesterday markets moved up as the opening was decided by the global cues but Smart bulls had different idea. Today it is consolidation time and Bulls will be back again.Nothing to worry about markets fall today.

Teledata shares should be credited to your demat account by today as per information from Registrar to Teledata. I hope the listing will take place next week.

IDEA cellular will perform in coming days and you should see target of 200 in this counter soon.

GMR Infra is consolidating and also in F & O ban and hence the movement is restricted.

Market Comments - FED Disappoints Wall Street

US Markets had rallied smartly on FED rate cut but when the rate cut was 25 bps, there was dissapointment and Wall Street tumbled.

Our Markets will also open weak as there was a good rally yesterday but what happens later will be known to smart investors only.

I will revise the targets for my stock picks and put the revised ones. DO NOT worry on that.

Comments on Current Stock Picks

Here is the updated consolidated list of stock picks and my comments on them

New Stock additions in December 2007 :

1. Idea Cellular : Buy aroudn 140 Levels for target of 200 in 3 months. Low valuation and good earnings expected. To be included in NIFTY from Dec 12th. Joint Tower Business with Bharti and other groups to give lot of savings.

My Old stock picks :

1.BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Demerger will create value for stock holders. My target is 4000 in 1 to 1.5 years. Already stock has run up from my recommended level in September but still target is intact.

2. BHEL :Good order book position. Can expect an appreciation of 50% in one year.Stock has appreciated well and target of 3000 is on cards.

Revised target is now 4000 in one year (by Dec 2008.)

3.DLF Limited :Target of 1100 in one year. Good stock to buy in Real estate. Based on Annual EPS of 40, it is quoting at 15 PE currently and is undervalued.We are close to this target and revised target for DLF should be 1400.

4.ICICI BANK LTD.One more good banking stock to pick in private sector. One can gain around 30% in one year time.I think it surpassed my target. It should gain another 30% from here in one year.

5. INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTDTechnology stocks which were once darling of the markets have taken back seat now and are not finding any takers but I still believe Infosys will deliver decent returns even in adverse conditions. I expect a target of 2500 by March End.I still maintain my target .

Update :
There is a possibility that IT stocks may not do well in future due to rupee appreciation and we may see 35 levels in rupee. So only long term holders can continue to hold infy with 4 to 5 years vision. As suggested invest some of your profits only.


6. Reliance Communications LimitedGood stock to hold in portfolio. Expect a return of 40% in one year from current levels.Rel Comm has multiple triggers and next target is 1000 based on its subsidiaries listing in foreign exchanges.

We should see target of 1500 in one year from now.

7. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTDTarget of 2500 in one year. It will move with Sensex and retail story can fuel this upto 4000 in 2 years.One year target was achieved in one month now I expect 3200 target in next one year.

Update : Revised Target is 5000 by Dec 2008. Reliance Retail IPO will be out very soon. I expect target of 10000 in Reliance by 2010.

8. Reliance Petroleum LimitedRevised target for RPL is 250 in one year.

Update : Revised Target for Reliance is now 500 in one year.

9.PTC INDIA LIMITEDTarget of 125 in one year.It should now be 150 in one year

Revised target for PTC should now be 250 Rs.

10. Sun TV Network LimitedTarget of 450 in one year time. Has good potential in terms of revenues..

11. GMR Infrastructure Limited - My favorite pick.Hold this for 3 to 4 years to reap a multi fold bonanza in this. Target of 2000 in 2 years and 4000 in 4 years.My favorite pick only did not perform as well as it should but I still maintain my targets as it will catch up soon on any news. Hyderabad Airport will start one month ahead than expected start of march 2008.

Update : Post Stock split, GMR Infra target is 550 in one year.

12. IDBIGood banking stock with value unlocking to take place. Target of 175 in 6 Months time.Target revised to 250 in next 6 months.

13.STATE BANK OF INDIAValue Unlocking and lot of potential left in this. Target of 2500 in one year time.We should see target of 2500 in next 6 months.

Update : SBI should now move to 5000 in one year due to value unlocking in subsidaries.

14.RELIANCE CAPITAL LTDAnother good stock to buy. Stock has potential to give 50% returns in one year. If bank licence is obtained stock may give 100% returns in one year.It has moved up from 1000 levels to 1800. Revised target is 2500 in one year.

Update : Revised target achieved in another month. Now the target is 4000 in one year.

15. Powergrid Corporation :Target of 200 in one year. Buy at dips in correction phase around 90 levels.

16. Jai Prakash associates :Stock split from 10 Rs to 2 Rs approved by share holders. Buy for Target of 2000 in next one year from current levels of around 1275.


Speculative Stocks or Punters Favourites

1.IFCI LTD
IFCI has announced good Q2 results. Stock should be re rated and hence for long term it can go to 250 Rupees. Long term investors can stay put in this for next 1 year.For short term investors 120 to 15o Rs will be there in next 4 months.

Update : Hold till the bids are finalised and the price to be known. I expect it will be 150 Rs by this month end. Long term holders can hold on to free stocks as the value can be 300 in one year.

2.JAI CORP LIMITED :Stock split to 1 rs and bonus of 1:1 given which gave 20 shares for 1 share held.Target of 20000 already achieved instead of 10000 given on Sept5th and it is moving to 25000 now. ....This call is closed now...Hold on to your free shares....

3.NAGARJUNA FERTILIZERS LTDStake sale rumour making this stock move up fast. Target of 60 being predicted.Target achieved. Sources now suggest 100 Rs on this similar to IFCI.

4.TELEDATA INFORMATICS LTDStock keeps moving from 55 to 70.Keep track and buy. Target of 125 in one year if demerger takes placeTarget should be reached now as high court approval achieved. Wait for Re listing to happen which is likely to be around December 19th.

5. Arvind Mills :I had asked to buy around 55. Target of 70 is achieved. One can exit from this and remain only in zero cost shares now.I will keep adding more stocks to this list and the link will be shown in my market comments so that it will be easy to pick.